Advanced Energy Perspectives

From left to right: Josh Cohen (Greenlots), Dylan Reed (AEE), Gloria Li (AEE), Andrew Apgar (Schneider Electric), Adam Mohabbat (EVgo), Eric McCarthy (Proterra)

With January right around the corner, many states are gearing up for the 2020 legislative session by filing bills and holding preliminary hearings. As a state with major opportunity for advanced energy, Florida is a place where AEE has been actively engaged in preparation for next year. On October 23,  AEE and our member companies flew to Tallahassee to present to the House Energy and Utilities Subcommittee and meet with legislators to discuss the trends and opportunities of advanced energy, specifically in electric vehicles, solar, and energy efficiency. Our message was clear: Advanced energy offers many benefits to Florida, including increased consumer choice and economic opportunity through job creation.

In 2018, the advanced transportation sector saw both the largest increase and the fastest growth (34%) in the U.S advanced energy market. Leading this growth was revenue from plug-in Electric Vehicles (EVs), mainly comprised of the light-duty market. Just as important is the burgeoning market of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MD/HDVs), which include the likes of school buses, city transit buses, delivery trucks, and garbage trucks. Medium- and heavy-duty EV adoption is expected to increase globally, reaching over 5 million vehicles on the road by 2030. Some analysts predict that half of the world’s municipal bus fleet will be electric by 2025. Get ready for EVs to go big!

This is one in a series of excerpts from the Advanced Energy Now 2019 Market Report, prepared for AEE by Navigant Research.

Advanced Transportation was the largest advanced energy segment worldwide in 2018 for the second year in a row, with an estimated $494.8 billion in revenue, up 2% from 2017 and 8% the year before. Since 2011, the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of Advanced Transportation globally was 6%. At the end of 2018, over 5 million plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) were on the roads worldwide. PEV sales are poised to enter a period of strong growth, driven by lower battery prices, maturing plug-in hybrid and all-electric powertrain systems, and a proliferation of new models. By the end of 2027, Navigant Research expects there to be 10 times as many PEVs on the road. In the United States, PEV sales are surging as well, with overall Advanced Transportation revenue growing 34% year over year and accounting for nearly one-third of U.S. advanced energy revenue growth in 2018. Since 2011, U.S. Advanced Transportation revenue has grown at a compound annual rate of 15%.

It has been an action packed few months in transportation electrification as legislative sessions have been in full swing. We have seen some good, some bad, and some ugly, but ultimately, as sessions start to wind down, the electric vehicle (EV) industry is walking away with some major wins. In Michigan, we saw a major charging infrastructure program approved. In Colorado, new legislation removed barriers to EV charging station deployment and extended tax credits for EV purchases. Down in the southwest, Nevada’s legislature has passed bills that incentivize the adoption of electric school buses by school districts and ease weight restrictions on heavy-duty electric vehicles. Next door in California, we got assurance that a new rulemaking is not going to hold up utility requests for approval of EV infrastructure plans. Meanwhile, a bill introduced in Pennsylvania is making that state look like the next one that could become EV friendly. These actions are all part of an accelerating trend toward vehicle electrification in states across the country.

Media Day at the Washington Auto Show kicked off with remarks by EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler defending the Trump Administration’s efforts to roll back CAFE emission standards for light-duty vehicles. AEE was also on hand, focusing on something Wheeler never mentioned: Electric vehicles (EVs) have arrived, and are driving toward the future of U.S. mobility.